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With Lauren Boebert gone, poll shows GOP primary voters in Colorado鈥檚 3rd are largely undecided

U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., a member of the House Freedom Caucus, speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill, July 14, 2023, in Washington.
Patrick Semansky/AP

A poll of people likely to vote in the Republican primary in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District shows more than half of the electorate is undecided on who they will support in the June 25 primary. 

Among those who have decided on their vote, Jeff Hurd, a Grand Junction attorney with several endorsements from GOP leaders in the state, has a significant leg up,. The other candidates in the primary had low name recognition.

Jeff Hurd/Courtesy photo

The poll, conducted Tuesday by the firm Co/efficient, asked questions of 1,110 likely Republican voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.07%. 



The winner of the Republican primary could have significant impacts on whether the general election to represent the district receives much national focus. Before Rep. Lauren Boebert to avoid a rematch with Democrat Adam Frisch, Colorado’s sprawling 3rd Congressional District had been identified as a target for Democrats looking to gain House seats.

If Hurd is the candidate, Democrats will likely face a steep uphill battle in their goal to flip the seat from red to blue. 

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While the 2022 election to represent the district was extremely close, with Boebert narrowly defeating former Aspen City Council member Frisch, most indicators point to Boebert as the vulnerability in that race rather than Republicans in general. 

The 3rd Congressional District spans a huge swath of western and southern Colorado from Aspen and Grand Junction into Pueblo.

Some Democrats seem to believe if another candidate more similar to Boebert is selected in the primary, they may stand a chance. 

A Democratic political organization called Rocky Mountain Values to attack Hurd and boost the platform of former state Rep. Ron Hanks, another candidate in the Republican primary. The group appears to believe Hanks,  and holds other hardline Republican views, would be an easier candidate to defeat. 

Frisch, who has significant financial backing, is the presumed Democratic candidate. 

Poll specifics

When asked whom they will support, 27% of respondents said they planned to vote for Hurd, 9% said Hanks and 5% said Stephen Varela, a member of the State Board of Education. The largest block by far, however, was the 52% who said they were undecided. 

Nearly half of the respondents had never heard of Varela, compared to 40% who hadn’t heard of Hanks and 22% for Hurd. 

Ron Hanks/Courtesy photo

About a third of people who knew of Hurd said they had a favorable opinion of him. When asked about Hanks, 17% said they had a favorable opinion. 

When analyzing responses based on which community people live in, Hurd had significant leads in the rural and suburban groups but was neck and neck with Hanks and Varela among urban voters. 

Stephen Varela/Courtesy photo

Hurd holds a significant lead among both voters who do and do not support Trump. Hurd has declined to state publicly whether he voted for Trump in 2016 or 2020. As for the group’s overall opinion of Trump, 77% said they have a favorable view of him.

Primary ballots have begun to be mailed to residents as of this week. To check your voter registration or update your address, visit ColoradoSOS.gov.


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